Can the high-nickel material entrance be opened by domestic power lithium batteries?
The price of cobalt metal continued to rise in 2018. Compared with the 520,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the first quarter, the increase in April was more than 20%. Although the rise in raw materials was affected by short-term capital speculation, the overall industrial supply distribution was too concentrated. , which will push up prices to continue rising in the medium and long term. For the lithium battery and new energy vehicle industry, it is necessary to begin to reflect the material cost quarter by quarter, which also tests whether the battery industry can adjust as soon as possible and reduce its dependence on cobalt metal.
Large increase in sales of new energy passenger vehicles boosts cobalt demand
As far as the reasons for the rise in cobalt prices are concerned, the outbreak of global new energy vehicles has become the main driving factor.
Analysts believe that since the second half of 2016, with the rapid development of global electric vehicles, cobalt used in ternary batteries has become the fastest growing and largest demand area for cobalt in the future, and cobalt has gradually entered another big cycle.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”) recently released data on automobile production and sales in March. In March, the sales performance of new energy vehicles was still eye-catching, with sales reaching 68,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 117.4%.
Among these newly added new energy vehicles, passenger cars that require higher energy density of power batteries occupy the absolute mainstream, which further increases the demand for cobalt materials.
In fact, since the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market, especially the passenger car market, the supply has been insufficient in the past two years. Entering the short supply due to growing demand. On the other hand, the uncertainty of the DRC government policy (the new mining law) and the unstable local situation are bound to bring more disturbances to the supply of cobalt materials.
In this regard, Sun Yonggang, deputy secretary-general of the Cobalt Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, analyzed that the rise in cobalt prices was basically within expectations. China is a cobalt-poor country with over 90% import dependence. Rising raw material costs are a factor driving prices up. In addition, the new energy power battery industry is booming and rising, and the increase in demand is also the common expectation of the entire industry chain. As a result, the prices of raw material products have risen rapidly, which is also in line with the rhythm of smelting enterprises to control the shipment of precious metals, thereby promoting the rise in cobalt prices.
On the other hand, due to the introduction of the sticker policy that has raised the energy density threshold of power batteries, ternary power batteries will become the main choice for electric passenger vehicles, and ternary materials have eroded the original lithium iron phosphate passenger vehicle market. This has largely contributed to the surge in demand for cobalt.
Reducing the trend of ternary with high cobalt content and nickel
With the continuous rise of cobalt prices, under the circumstance that the market supply of total cobalt ore production is limited, the power battery material structure is bound to undergo new changes.
In order to solve the problem of rising costs, power batteries are being promoted to high energy density products. The practice of the battery cell factory is to actively apply positive electrode materials such as nickel-manganese-cobalt and nickel-cobalt-aluminum to increase the use of nickel metal, so that the proportion of cobalt metal will gradually decrease.
This trend can also be seen from the shipments of cathode material companies.
Recently, Dangsheng Technology recently released its annual report. The company's net profit in 2017 was 250 million, a year-on-year increase of 151.97%. In its announcement, it was disclosed that due to the increase in the price of cathode materials benefiting from the increase in the price of upstream cobalt and lithium resources, the shipment volume of cathode materials increased by 21.7% year-on-year to 9,800 tons.
Due to the influence of the rising cobalt price, Dangsheng Technology is still in the annual report summary and disclosure, in 2017, it is mainly based on ternary 532. It is expected that the company will ship about 1,000 tons of high nickel ternary in 2017, accounting for 10%.
With the trend of high nickel ternary, Dangsheng Technology said that the 811 positive electrode will be mass-produced this year, the customer expansion is smooth, and the follow-up potential is great.
It is understood that Dangsheng Technology Power's ternary cathode material customers basically include the top ten domestic battery manufacturers, and this year, it has expanded several major customers. As a leading manufacturer of high-nickel ternary cathode materials, its 622 product scale and quality are at the forefront of the industry. Dangsheng Technology also revealed that the company's 811 positive electrode has been mass-produced, and downstream customers are currently in the pilot stage, and it is expected to start contributing revenue in the second half of the year.
This also adapts to the current technological change of lithium batteries. According to the previous plan, by 2020, the specific energy of the power battery will reach 300 watt-hours/kg, the cycle will be more than 1,000 times, and the cost will be within 0.8 yuan/watt-hour. And the cathode material corresponding to this target is high nickel ternary.
Wang Shaoping, general manager of Fujian Dynavolt New Energy, also said that with the development of power batteries in the direction of high energy density, in the field of cathode materials, high-nickel materials have high capacity, low cost, and optimal cost performance, which is currently in line with the mainstream trend of industrial development. However, this does not mean that all cathode material companies can quickly turn to the direction of high nickel, and the existing LFP and NCM111 and even NCM523 production lines cannot be directly switched to NCM811 or NCA production lines.
Chinese companies are gaining momentum
Improving the energy density of power batteries has always been an important goal of the entire lithium battery industry. Under the encouragement of the new energy policy, China's power battery industry chain has achieved leapfrog development, and NCM622 and NCM811 have been promoted simultaneously. However, due to the high technical barriers of NCM811, the requirements in terms of preparation process, equipment, production environment and supporting high-voltage electrolyte are much higher than those of ordinary ternary materials, and the progress is slow, but in the new policy environment, the positive electrode Material companies have begun to accelerate research and development, and some companies have already started mass production.
For example, Shanshan Energy announced at the end of last year that the high-nickel production line in the Ningxiang base with a monthly output of 100 tons was successfully put into operation. In 2017, Tianjin Bamo's production line with an annual output of 5,000 tons of high-nickel materials was put into operation, and NCM811 has been supplied in batches to major international customers.
In terms of domestic battery companies, BAK Battery took the lead in announcing the mass production of NCM811 cylindrical power batteries. The battery energy density has been increased to 232Wh/kg, and the follow-up 300Wh/kg products will also be available soon. Penghui Energy revealed that the company has mass-produced 2.8Ah and 3.0Ah cylindrical 18650 batteries using NCM811 materials and supplied them to relevant OEMs.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech recently said in a structural survey that the company has undertaken a major scientific and technological project of 300wh/kg high energy density from the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China. The company has developed a ternary 811 soft-pack battery with an energy density of 302wh/kg. Guoxuan Hi-Tech has started to build pilot lines for related products, and plans to start building production lines in 2019. In addition, Guoxuan Hi-Tech has determined to provide the ternary 622 power battery for the first model developed by the joint venture between Ford and Zotye.
Comments: There is no doubt that the high-nickel route is the main promotion direction for domestic power batteries in the next stage, but it is worth noting that the high-nickel route puts forward higher requirements for technology and equipment, which will also accelerate the elimination of small and medium-sized battery companies. . At the same time, for superior battery companies, continuous technological innovation and continuous forging ahead are the long-term strategy for companies to win the future.
