Analysis of the basic situation of my country's new energy power lithium battery
In recent years, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly. In 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country exceeded 700,000, and the number of new energy vehicles has exceeded 1.8 million. In recent years, the production and sales are expected to reach 1 million. my country's electric vehicle-related technologies and supporting infrastructure construction have also achieved certain development, which is embodied in battery, power consumption, charging and other aspects.
Power battery technology is developing rapidly, and will usher in the phase of elimination or mergers and acquisitions in the future
my country's electric vehicle power battery technology routes are divided into two types: lithium batteries and fuel cells. At present, lithium batteries are the main ones in China. Compared with foreign countries, the technical level of domestically developed lithium-ion battery cells is basically the same as that of foreign countries. my country's power battery shipments have already ranked among the international leaders, whether it is cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate, ternary, high electric manganese. and other materials are in an advantageous position.
The data shows that from 2014 to 2017, the total supply of power batteries in my country has increased steadily, from 3.64 billion WH to 37.06 billion WH, achieving a relatively large increase, mainly due to the power battery manufacturers. increase in number.
In terms of policy support, relevant state departments have also shown great importance to the development of the power battery field, covering power battery industry specifications, power battery industry development, power battery standards, power battery recycling and other aspects. In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)", which stated that by 2020, there will be more than 120,000 new centralized charging and swapping stations and more than 480 decentralized charging piles. To meet the charging demand of 5 million electric vehicles nationwide, the planned vehicle-to-pile ratio should be close to 1:1.
At the same time, my country has also formulated a series of development plans based on relevant foreign experience. The plan shows that by 2020, the mass density of battery modules will reach more than 300Wh/kg, and the cost will be reduced to below 1.5 yuan/Wh.
Although the development speed of power batteries is amazing, in fact, the total demand for power batteries in my country in 2017 may be less than 3.5 billion WH, which shows that the power battery market will usher in a stage of overcapacity in the future. Therefore, in the next stage, the Chinese government may adjust the development strategy to guide the healthy and coordinated development of the power battery industry. There has long been news in the industry that subsidies for new energy vehicles have entered a stage of decline. There is no doubt that the power battery industry will also be affected.
In addition, from the perspective of the industry structure, the latest data shows that the installed capacity of power lithium batteries in the first quarter of 2018 accounted for half of the Ningde era, accounting for 49.5%; the second was BYD, accounting for 19.8%; the third Three are Guoxuan Hi-Tech, accounting for 8.7%. The top three manufacturers occupy the vast majority of the market share, which is enough to suggest that the power battery market is about to usher in a phase of elimination and mergers and acquisitions.
However, affected by the cost of new energy materials, the profits of my country's power battery industry are decreasing. Experts predict that the gross profit margin of power battery companies will drop from the current 30% to about 20% in 2018.
Supporting infrastructure construction continues to improve, but demand does not match
Like the development of the power battery market, the widespread use of new energy vehicles requires the construction of a complete energy supply system. At present, the energy supply system has been established at home and abroad, including two modes: one is a self-charging mode, and the other is a power-swap mode. Among them, the self-charging mode is the focus of research in many countries.
The construction of charging piles in my country has entered the fast lane, increasing from 17,900 in 2012 to 213,000 in 2017, which has formed a certain scale and ranks first in the world.
However, it also faces certain problems in the development process, that is, the utilization efficiency of charging piles is low, the layout of charging facilities is not reasonable enough, and the development model of sustainable business has not yet been formed. In addition, in some areas, the parking fee is more expensive than the charging fee, and the charging pile is occupied by gasoline vehicles, resulting in poor user experience. In addition, the interconnection between charging piles has always been a pain point in the development of the industry, because it involves the application of charging piles by users, and can also allow enterprises to better operate charging piles. Therefore, in response to this pain point, many companies have begun to devote themselves to this, but have not achieved results.
But there is no doubt that under the general trend of the development of new energy vehicles, the number of new energy vehicles continues to increase, people's demand for charging facilities will be stronger, and the construction of charging infrastructure will continue to improve in the future; at the same time, the government will also continue to play a role. In the future, with the improvement of Internet +, Internet of Things, and big data technology, the future charging pile infrastructure will continue to deepen the degree of information openness, and ultimately achieve interconnection.
