How much impact will the elimination of incandescent lamps have on the development of LEDs
After European and American countries have successively introduced incandescent lamp elimination plans, the delisting of incandescent lamps in the Chinese market has also entered a countdown. On November 4, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republic of China have jointly issued the "Announcement on the Gradual Prohibition of the Import and Sale of General Lighting Incandescent Lamps". Since then, the import and sale of general lighting incandescent lamps will be gradually banned in stages according to their power levels.
It is considered to be LED application lighting-a major benefit that is expected to replace the traditional lighting industry on a large scale in the future. Affected directly by this news, the LED concept stocks were immediately speculated by the market, and the growth rate rose to the top of the concept sector.
Interpretations about the huge development opportunities that the LED industry will usher in are beginning to flood the market, but the reality may not be the case. "The introduction of the roadmap for the delisting of incandescent lamps has brought substantial opportunities to the LED industry."
According to the detailed rules of the aforementioned “Announcement” of the joint ministries and commissions, China’s roadmap for phasing out incandescent lamps is divided into five stages. The first step is to prohibit the import and sale of general lighting incandescent lamps of 100 watts and above, but this will start on October 1, 2012. The implementation began, and there is still nearly a year left.
At present, the application of 100-watt incandescent lamps on the market is really limited, mainly concentrated in a few public areas such as township areas, industrial and mining places. "In fact, the number of 100-watt incandescent lamps in use is limited. This part of the market is highly price-sensitive, and it is unlikely to accept such high-priced products in the short term." The manufacturer believes that for the 100-watt incandescent lamp market The substitution effect is actually very small
At present, 70% of the LED downstream lighting applications are concentrated in the outdoor field, most of which are municipal projects. "As the lighting technology using semiconductors, the project price is high. Therefore, in the early stage of the market, government investment is often required to drive demand. "But on the other side of reality, according to our investigation, it is precisely because the current LED outdoor lighting market is too dependent on municipal projects that it is currently facing many difficulties. Take the LED street light project as an example. This newspaper interviewed many companies in the Pearl River Delta and said: "At present, 80% of LED street lamp projects in the market are at a loss.
A senior executive of Shenzhen Huaye Group, which is engaged in the production of LED street lamps, told this newspaper that most of the LED energy-saving renovation projects are municipal projects. The specific operation is often the “top leader” project of the local government. “Because the LED street light project has a long implementation period, and the replacement of supervisors often brings certain uncertainty to the project,” the person in charge of a number of LED street light companies reflected in this report In LED street light projects, we often encounter difficulties in collecting money
In this context, EMC mode began to be widely used in LED street lighting projects. The so-called EMC, or contract energy management, is a new type of market-based energy-saving mechanism, and its essence is an energy-saving business method that uses reduced energy costs to pay for the full cost of energy-saving projects. By adopting the EMC model, the buyer can replace new energy-saving equipment at "zero cost" without paying any additional costs
Another dilemma is that, according to the EMC model, the higher the energy consumption of the original street lamp and the more expensive the electricity bill, the higher the amount of cost saved, and the more construction funds used to offset the LED project. "However, the reality in China is that electricity prices are low, which has further lengthened the construction cycle of EMC projects." The aforementioned Huaye Group executives said bluntly. Under the influence of multiple unfavorable factors in the Pearl River Delta, the region where enterprises are concentrated, enterprises are currently struggling. Public information from the Shenzhen Semiconductor Lighting Industry Development Promotion Association shows that there are about 1,300 LED companies in Shenzhen. Since this year, more than 80 LED companies in Shenzhen have quietly closed down or liquidated. Among them, Mao Guojun, the chairman of Shenzhen Jundoli Lighting, once "missed" due to a debt of 80 million, which caused a lot of shock in the Shenzhen industry.
"The figures published by the association should still be conservative. Only Shenzhen has closed down more than 100 LED companies this year." Eite Lighting Chairman Feng Jun told this newspaper, under the background of the difficult situation of the LED street lamp industry, which currently accounts for the main market. , A large number of companies have begun to turn indoors.
It is understood that, including Shenzhen Huaye Group, Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronics (002638) and other companies that once mainly engaged in LED street lighting, have begun to extend to the LED indoor lighting business. "Indoor projects are different from municipal projects, and they are more price-sensitive." Feng Jun believes that although product prices have generally fallen by about 30% this year, there is still a big gap between the acceptance of large-scale commercial markets .
