The decline of subsidies has forced the battery industry to centralize!
The decline of subsidies has forced the battery industry to concentrate, and the power battery will usher in a knockout game in the second half. Technological upgrades have intensified global competition, and improving energy density has become the way to advance.
On January 16, a seminar on the development direction of power batteries under the new situation in 2018 was held in Nanjing. Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, attended the meeting and pointed out that it is an indisputable fact that subsidies will decline in 2018, and new energy power batteries are facing technological challenges. Upgrading, high specific energy power batteries will be the focus of future research and development and industrialization, and the future capacity of new energy batteries will be concentrated in a few large companies.
The subsidy decline forced the battery industry to concentrate
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on January 11, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country reached 794,000 and 777,000 in 2017, up 53.8% and 53.4% year-on-year, respectively.
In 2017, the total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries reached 37.06 billion Wh, of which, the installed capacity of passenger vehicles was 13.98 billion Wh, accounting for 37.72%; the installed capacity of passenger cars was 14.57 billion Wh, accounting for 39.31%; the installed capacity of special vehicles was 8.51 billion Wh , accounting for 22.95%.
The supporting capacity of lithium-ion batteries is 36.9 billion Wh, accounting for 99.56% of the supporting capacity. Among them, ternary: 16.56 billion Wh, accounting for 44.87% of the supporting capacity of lithium-ion batteries; lithium iron phosphate: 18.07 billion Wh, accounting for 48.96%; lithium manganate: 1.54 billion Wh, accounting for 4.17%; lithium titanate: 7.4 100 million Wh, accounting for 2%. In 2017, my country once again became the world's largest power battery application market.
For my country's power battery industry in 2017, it can be described as "ups and downs". The decline of subsidies and the release of new subsidy policies have smashed the hotbed of policies, the power battery industry has entered a period of market transformation, and the brutal situation of industry competition has begun to emerge. On the one hand, the energy density of power batteries continues to rise, which increases the threshold for products to enter the market and accelerates the elimination of enterprises; on the other hand, cost reduction has become the general trend, and the pressure of price reduction is gradually transmitted to the upstream, and power batteries have gradually changed from a huge profit industry to a meager profit industry. .
Liu Yanlong pointed out that with the in-depth adjustment of national policies, the concentration of the power battery industry will continue to increase. In 2017, the supporting volume of the top 5 enterprises was 22.343 billion WH, accounting for 60.5%; the supporting volume of the top 20 enterprises was 32.09 billion WH, accounting for 87%. The first-tier companies in the industry are gradually eroding market share through technological advantages, while the low-end production capacity of second- and third-tier companies is facing the crisis of being eliminated. The development requirements put forward by the national competent authorities for the new energy vehicle and power battery industry are to "support the excellent and strong" and increase the industry concentration.
Technological upgrades drive global competition
Judging from the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy draft that has been circulated, the subsidy policy will mainly be adjusted from three aspects: the subsidy of cruising range will be more detailed, the requirements for battery energy density will be increased, and the subsidy of energy consumption coefficient will be subsidized in subscales.
In terms of passenger cars, the cruising range subsidy may be divided into 50km, or subsidy for key downhill A00-class models; in terms of logistics vehicles, the energy density requirement of power batteries may be increased to 115Wh/kg, which was previously required to be 90Wh/kg. ; In terms of passenger cars, the energy density requirements of power batteries may be increased to 140Wh/kg, which was previously required to be 120Wh/kg.
It is reported that the subsidy line received by OEMs is 105Wh/kg, and the subsidy coefficient may be adjusted again. The battery energy density is 105~120Wh/kg according to the coefficient of 0.5, and the battery energy density is 120-140Wh/kg. 1 times the coefficient subsidy, the energy density higher than 140Wh/kg is subsidized by 1.1 times the coefficient.
It is an indisputable fact that subsidies will further decline in 2018. Under the new policy situation, the realistic demand for further improvement of system energy density has made the requirements of new energy OEMs for the technological upgrading of power battery enterprises more urgent.
Liu Yanlong said that from the current industry structure, we can infer that in the future, the new energy vehicle and power battery industry will concentrate most of the production capacity in a few large companies. Then for other new energy vehicle companies and power battery companies with relatively scattered production capacity, the future market competition will be more brutal.
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that my country's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and is in a critical period of transforming the development mode, optimizing the economic structure, and transforming the driving force of growth. After the rapid growth in the early stage, my country's lithium-ion batteries have exposed some problems, including structural excess capacity, product structure to be optimized, and product quality to be improved urgently. In order to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of my country's lithium-ion battery industry, it is necessary to seize the historical opportunity of the rapid development of my country's new energy vehicles in accordance with the requirements of the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and accelerate the pace of "quality improvement" in the lithium-ion battery industry. China should not only be a power battery producer, but also a power battery producer.
At present, the conditions for foreign investment in the field of new energy vehicles and power batteries have been opened. After the subsidies are completely eliminated in 2020, domestic power battery companies will face all-round competition from domestic and foreign companies, and global competition will intensify.
Therefore, enterprises must actively change their development mode, from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, insist on relying on scientific and technological innovation, and take the road of differentiated and high-end development. Enterprises, universities and research institutions should actively take the road of joint development, implement strong alliances, cooperate closely between upstream and downstream enterprises, and speed up the adjustment of power battery product structure to prevent risks caused by excessive production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Liu Yanlong believes that high specific energy power batteries will be the focus of future research and development and industrialization. It is necessary to accelerate the development of high specific energy power batteries such as high nickel ternary systems to meet the requirements of new energy vehicles for driving range. With the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle and energy storage market, higher requirements have been placed on the high safety, high consistency, high qualification rate and low manufacturing cost of power batteries. Standardize management and accelerate intelligent manufacturing in the battery industry.
