In 2022, my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 47% year-on-year
On December 14, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said at the 2022 my country Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit that it is expected that the sales of new automobiles in my country will reach 27.5 million in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million, up 47% year-on-year. The chip supply problem will still exist next year. Chip supply will reach a tight balance by the end of next year.
Chip supply will be in tight balance next year
On the basis that the cumulative sales of new cars in my country's auto market in the first 11 months of this year have reached 23.489 million units, the China Automobile Association predicts that my country's total auto sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles was 21.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%; the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times.
Chen Shihua analyzed that in 2021, due to the increasing shortage of automotive chips in the third quarter, the monthly trend of my country's auto market will be characterized by highs and lows. From January to October 2021, there will be a gap of about 750,000 vehicles in my country's auto market due to chip supply issues. Considering the next two months, the shortage of chip supply will lead to a reduction of 1.3 million to 1.4 million vehicles in my country's auto market this year.
The China Automobile Association predicts that the trend of the auto market next year will be the opposite, showing the characteristics of low before and high. Chen Shihua believes that the opening of the Winter Olympics in the first half of next year will have a certain impact on the production of automobile-related companies in North China, and the chip supply problem will continue until next year. Chip supply will reach a tight balance by the end of next year.
Regarding the trend of my country's auto market in 2022, the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that my country's total auto sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Among them, the sales of passenger vehicles were 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year; the sales of commercial vehicles were 4.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47%.
Chen Shihua said that in addition to chips, there are multiple factors that are conducive to the development of the auto market next year. For example, in 2022, my country's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand will be strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and new energy vehicle exports will continue to increase.
Chen Shihua believes that from the perspective of long-term development, my country's automobile market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars are gradually shifting from the incremental market to the stock market. Although there were fluctuations in my country's automobile market in 2018, throughout history, the developed countries also experienced fluctuations of about 2-4 years in the popularization stage. Judging from this law, the production and sales of my country's automobile market is currently at the end of a short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate upward trend in the future.
The new energy vehicle market may enter an explosive period
Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers, pointed out that in 2021, market consumer demand will continue to show a trend of quality improvement and upgrading, and the overall automobile production and sales will still maintain a steady increase, and there are many bright spots. The cumulative output of new energy vehicles in the first 11 months exceeded 3 million, and the sales volume was close to 3 million. It is expected that the annual sales volume is expected to reach 3.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. The marketization of new energy vehicles has entered a new stage of explosive growth, which has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven in the past.
In Fu Bingfeng's view, a new round of technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry and accelerating the progress towards "electrification, networking, and intelligence". important strategic choices for development. The continuous improvement of people's living standards continues to drive the consumption upgrade of the automobile market, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end automobile sales has increased year by year, which has also brought new development opportunities for automobile companies. He also pointed out that external adverse effects such as anti-globalization, continued epidemics, and high raw material prices have also brought uncertainty to the development of the auto industry. my country's auto industry should be alert to the possible impact of changes in the external environment.
Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economic Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicts that the demand for automobiles is expected to continue to rebound slightly in 2022. The sales volume of automobiles is roughly 27 million units, an increase of 3%-5% year-on-year, and the pattern of low before and high throughout the year will remain .
Lin Huaibin, head of IHSMarkit's light vehicle sales forecast in my country, believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. Considering the comprehensive cost, the current electric vehicle has reached a level that is basically the same as that of the fuel vehicle, and the cost performance advantage of the electric vehicle has been very obvious. It should be seen that while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of autonomous driving is also rapidly increasing. If chips can be supplied stably, my country's new energy vehicle market share will account for 17%-18% in 2022.
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operations of WM Motor Group, believes that the current penetration rate of electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to an inflection point of 16%. After crossing this inflection point, my country's new energy vehicles will enter an outbreak period, and electric vehicles must attack the mid-end market of traditional fuel vehicles, that is, the A-class vehicle market.
In this regard, Bai Ling, an industry research expert from the Product Planning Department of Chongqing Changan, also believes that in 2022, the new energy vehicle market will gradually transform from a barbell to a spindle shape. The proportion will gradually increase.
