In-depth analysis of the obstacles to the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry
What this industry lacks the most is not money, but mature technology and an operation team that can be traded commercially.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.
The key to the technical bottleneck lies in the battery
Whether in China or around the world, there is a very mature technical support and manufacturing system for shell manufacturing and vehicle assembly, so there is no need to worry too much. For new energy vehicles, although it is relatively easy to develop consumption habits, if the problems of too long charging time and too short cruising range cannot be solved, then compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the refueling is fast and the stations are densely populated. It will lose its status as a new favorite in the market.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
First, the construction cost of the site itself is very huge, and the battery needs professional maintenance. What kind of capital partner can the battery manufacturer cooperate with to achieve this?
The second is that when consumers buy a car, the battery module in the vehicle is equivalent to paying a deposit and renting it. This part of the investment may take 3 to 10 years to return. What kind of enterprise can take such a risk?
The third is that the current battery standards have not yet been unified. Like the earliest mobile phones, standard modules and unified interfaces cannot be achieved. What kind of companies can have such forward-looking and R&D capabilities to formulate and lead standards?
Therefore, the most realistic solution at the moment is still to fast charge and increase battery life.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
At the same time, the negative impact of security performance cannot be underestimated. For example, after the explosion of Samsung mobile phones, major airports have adopted stricter regulations on the carrying and use of lithium-ion batteries. The core problem is that it is difficult to achieve the most effective combination of capacity density and safety performance of the battery itself. At present, there is no essential breakthrough. Even graphene, which was once hotly hyped, is difficult to achieve large-scale commercial mass production within three to five years.
The core of resource troubles lies in lithium cobalt
In the past three years, the price of basic lithium salts has risen dramatically. From the end of 2014 to 2017, it climbed from less than 40,000 yuan/ton to 180,000 yuan/ton, and then dropped to about 150,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose about 4 to 5 times.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400% increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50% increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached $29 per pound, but there is still more than 65% of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
Are prices skyrocketing due to scarcity of resources? the answer is negative.
From the analysis of lithium resources, the world's current proven lithium reserves are 14Mt, and the current annual demand is 32.5kt. Lithium resources are mainly distributed in the range of 30-40 degrees north latitude and 20-30 degrees south latitude, such as the Andes Plateau of South America, the western United States and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Australia and Chile together control 75% of the world's lithium resources.
In my country, 90% of lithium resources are distributed in the west, and the current mining is mainly ore lithium (spodumene and lepidolite) and the average grade is low (0.8%-1.4%, lower than 1.465% in foreign countries-3. 55%), and the magnesium content in brine is relatively high (the Mg/Li ratio is generally greater than 40, and the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile is only 6.47), so it is difficult to use on an industrial scale.
From the analysis of cobalt resources, the world's cobalt resources are rich and concentrated. According to the 2016 Mineral Commodity Summaries of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the world's proven cobalt reserves in 2015 were 7.1 million tons, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Cuba, New Caledonia, Zambia and Russia, which accounts for about 80% of the world's total cobalt reserves.
In terms of production capacity, there are 10 mines producing cobalt resources in Congo (DRC), but 5 of them are held by Glencore of Switzerland, accounting for about 67% of the cobalt resources in producing mines in Congo (DRC). Freeport Corporation of the United States, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation of Kazakhstan, Shalina Resources Corporation of the United Arab Emirates, China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group each hold one. The rest of the world's cobalt production capacity is not enough to shake Congo's dominance.
With the improvement of industrial-scale utilization and breakthroughs in extraction technology, based on the principle that lithium, cobalt and other metal elements do not disappear, the lithium battery recycling industry has quietly emerged, recycling has become a reality, and the demand for natural resources will be reduced accordingly. The skyrocketing situation is like the history of iron ore, and it is more the result of international capital control speculation, which cannot fully reflect the real situation of industrial development.
The key to policy concerns is subsidies
A basic understanding needs to be clarified: the essence of state subsidies for new energy vehicles is to support an industry, create a first-mover advantage, and quickly expand the market, rather than subsidies similar to traditional agricultural sectors. The purpose is to maintain the basic disk stability. Therefore, in the near future, the subsidy policy will definitely be cancelled.
The current orientation of policy subsidies generally focuses on two aspects: first, at the technical level, encouraging technological innovation, keeping pace with the world, and rewarding industry leaders; second, at the market level, breaking through the bottleneck of environmental protection, advocating green travel, and leveraging large and medium-sized cities , highlight the responsibility of a major country, and rely on the "Belt and Road" to seize overseas markets.
Specific to the production, operation and product sales of enterprises, the current sales of pure electric vehicles seem to grow slowly or even decline, which has a great relationship with the extension of the delivery period to more than 6 months. The problem it reflects is that the actual production capacity of power batteries is very limited at present. In the existing technical route, although related companies have also invested in battery factories and basic lithium salt (mainly lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide) projects, but The cycle time for planning, demonstration, design, approval, construction, and production of industrial projects, especially the chemical industry where basic lithium salts are located, is generally 1-2 years, and the large-scale release of production capacity should be before 2020.
The related terminal car market demand has not eased for a moment, as can be seen in the number of new energy vehicles in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (for example, Beijing's number has been as far away as 2021). Some foreign media believe that if there is no capacity limit for batteries, the sales of pure electric vehicles can easily surpass that of plug-in hybrid vehicles. In recent years, the Chinese government has achieved the goal of vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles. The key to restricting the development of new energy vehicles is not government subsidies or market demand, but the formation of production capacity under technological breakthroughs. Public information shows that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros (11.8 billion U.S. dollars) to build 40 new energy vehicles with local Chinese partners. The company hopes to produce 1.5 million new energy vehicles in China by 2025. cars, most of which are electric vehicles. Toyota has also said it will produce electric vehicles in China by 2020. BMW's battery R&D and production center was opened from Munich to Shenyang, and BMW also chose Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) as a partner.
It can be said that this is the best era for new energy vehicles. New forces are coming, and a large amount of capital has been involved in all aspects of mines, basic lithium salts, electrode materials, battery production and vehicle manufacturing through various means, and is committed to seizing opportunities. The traditional bigwigs have also woken up suddenly, working hard, trying to stabilize the fundamentals and expand into new areas. In a word, what this industry lacks most is not money, but mature technologies that can be applied in the market and an operation team that can be traded commercially.
