Lithium-ion battery cathode material production continues to rise
According to the statistics of the Lithium Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in 2017, the output of cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries in my country was 323,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.54%, and the consumption of lithium carbonate was about 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 52.14%. The output of cathode materials of more than ten enterprises more than 10,000 tons.
Due to the adjustment of the subsidy policy, under the guidance of the national industrial policy and the dual stimulation of market demand, the production of ternary materials has continued to grow. Companies such as Dangsheng Technology, Betray, Ningbo Rongbai have begun to produce NCM811, NCM622 and NCA, etc. Ternary material. The advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as safety, low cost and long service life, are widely used in the fields of power vehicles and energy storage. In 2017, the domestic production of lithium iron phosphate materials continued to grow. Lithium manganate batteries have the characteristics of good low temperature performance and high voltage and frequency. In the first batch of new energy bus recommendation catalogues in 2017, 38 models are equipped with lithium manganate batteries. Lithium manganate batteries account for the highest proportion of new energy buses in the recommended catalogue, especially the application of lithium manganate batteries in logistics vehicles, which has promoted the production of lithium manganate in China. In 2017, the domestic lithium-ion battery cathode material technology progress and production have made great progress.
my country has become the world's most important producer and consumer of cathode materials. In order to meet the different needs of the three major markets of power battery, energy storage lithium battery and small lithium battery, the main battery material factories and downstream customers jointly develop different types of products, and produce according to customer orders. As many companies are optimistic about the development of new energy vehicles, the production capacity of lithium-ion cathode materials is rapidly expanding. According to the statistics of the Lithium Industry Branch, the production capacity of the top 30 domestic companies exceeds 500,000 tons. A number of leading enterprises such as Hunan Shanshan, Ningbo Rongbai, and Beterui also have a production capacity of several hundred thousand tons of cathode materials under construction or planning. It is expected that by 2020, the domestic production capacity of cathode materials will double.
The application range of lithium batteries continues to expand, from electric vehicles, mobile phones, notebook computers, tablet computers, digital cameras, power tools, electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, equipment, aerospace and other fields, to small electronic watches, CD players. , MP3, MP4, cameras, various remote controls, shavers, children's toys, etc., from emergency power supplies in hospitals, hotels, supermarkets, telephone exchanges and other occasions, and also began to be used in wind power, solar power plants and other energy storage power sources system.
The state's policy support and financial subsidies for new energy vehicles, many local governments regard the lithium battery industry as the focus of development, and also give strong support in attracting investment and other aspects. After the release of the 2017 version of the power battery specification, a large number of power battery companies set off a wave of production expansion. At the end of 2017, the overall power battery production capacity exceeded 228 billion watt-hours, an increase of 125% over the previous year, further causing excess capacity in the industry. In 2017, the national output of lithium-ion batteries exceeded 11 billion naturally. According to the statistics of ASIACHEM, China's lithium-ion battery output in 2017 was about 88.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%.
In 2017, the sales of new energy vehicles in major countries in the world reached 1.42 million, and the domestic production of new energy vehicles reached 794,000, and the sales volume was 777,000, an increase of 53.6% and 53.3% respectively year-on-year. The installed capacity of domestic power batteries is about 33.55GWh. According to the disclosure of lithium battery companies, some companies have a certain amount of inventory.
In 2017, the key raw materials of lithium-ion batteries, lithium and cobalt, rose sharply, which brought enormous pressure to the production of the battery industry. Many companies extended the industrial chain in order to achieve the established goal of 1 yuan/Wh of power battery cost in 2020. , Some car factories and battery factories invest in key battery resources and strive to reduce costs.
At the beginning of 2017, the new policy of subsidies for new energy vehicles has not been introduced, and the impact of the Spring Festival on production has been superimposed. The production of new energy vehicles has declined, and the production of lithium batteries has declined. Domestic high-nickel ternary materials have just started, and the market cannot digest the rapidly increasing lithium hydroxide products, resulting in a decline in the price of lithium hydroxide products. Since the second quarter, the operating rate of the lithium battery industry has gradually recovered, driving the demand for lithium carbonate and other lithium salts, and the market price has gradually risen. In the third quarter of 2017, affected by environmental protection inspections, the price of lithium carbonate rose sharply, and high nickel and other lithium battery cathode materials The demand for lithium hydroxide is relatively stable, and the price of lithium hydroxide does not fluctuate much. At the end of the fourth quarter, due to the influence of a large number of domestic imports of spodumene ore and concentrate, as well as the release of information such as major breakthroughs in lithium extraction from domestic salt lakes and lepidolite, lithium carbonate prices gradually fell.
At the beginning of 2018, several listed companies at home and abroad have announced plans to enter the lithium carbonate industry or invest in lithium resources. In the past two or three years, more and more companies have invested in lithium resources in Australia, Africa, South America and other places, and the exploration and development activities of lithium resources have become more and more active. In 2018, three large lithium mines in Australia will be put into operation, lithium concentrates will be shipped to my country one after another, and lithium raw ore resources transported from overseas to my country will also increase substantially. These will play a positive role in ensuring domestic and even global lithium carbonate supply.
For the price trend of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the key depends on market demand and effective supply. According to the support of various countries for the new energy automobile industry and the planning of various automobile factories, it is expected that the global demand for lithium will increase by about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2018. Domestic ore lithium extraction enterprises need to purchase spodumene concentrate for more than half of their production capacity. Even if they purchase raw ore to process concentrate, the cost of raw materials is high. At the same time, the price of lithium carbonate abroad is gradually rising, and the demand for lithium salt in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States is also increasing year by year. The investment cost of overseas lithium salt projects is high, the construction period is long, and the production capacity release is slow.
The newly added lithium carbonate processing capacity is mainly in China, and the lithium salt processing project started last year is also progressing as planned. The projects and production capacity put into operation in the first half of this year are relatively small, and the production line will not be released until the second half of the year, and the tight supply situation is expected to be effectively reversed in the fourth quarter.
