my country's power lithium battery market presents a diversified development trend
Under the explosive rise in sales of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries have also ushered in the "highlight moment" of the explosion of installed capacity, and their development prospects are bright. Facing the goal of global carbon emissions, the sustainable development of the power lithium-ion battery industry chain is particularly important. How to balance carbon emission goals and sustainable development is also a test for the power lithium-ion battery industry.
On December 2nd, the 2021 annual media communication meeting of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association, made a speech on "Promoting the Sustainable Rise of New Energy Vehicles". report on the subject. The report introduces the development of new energy vehicles from four aspects: vehicle technology, sustainable battery development, charging and swapping, smart energy for electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel and fuel-powered lithium batteries. Thinking deserves our attention.
The maturity of power lithium-ion battery technology lays the foundation for the explosion of electric vehicle sales
In 2021, the new energy vehicle market will enter a stage of explosive growth, and the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will show a trend of rapid monthly increase. Industry data show that from January to November 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country's market reached 2.99 million, and the annual sales in 2021 are expected to reach 3.3 million. Ouyang Minggao predicts that my country's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million in 2022.
As the core component of electric vehicles, the power lithium-ion battery, its technology continues to improve, the cost is reduced, the battery system structure design continues to innovate, the blade, CTP and other innovative processes are applied on a large scale, and the lithium iron phosphate battery technology continues to mature. The rise of energy vehicles has laid a solid foundation.
Ouyang Minggao said that based on the demand for long battery life of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries are still moving towards high-specific energy and high-nickel ternary lithium-ion batteries, or solid-liquid mixed high-nickel ternary lithium-ion batteries. Improve the energy density of power lithium-ion batteries.
When new energy vehicles enter a period of fierce competition, the improvement of battery technology will play an important role in the competition of new energy vehicles in my country. At present, my country's battery technology occupies a leading position in the world. Ouyang Minggao said that my country's battery industry chain is relatively complete, and 70% of the world's battery production is in my country. It is difficult to shake the competitiveness of my country's power lithium-ion battery industry in a short period of time. He also pointed out that, however, other countries have not relaxed their research on battery technology, and Japan, the United States and other countries strongly support a new generation of high-performance power lithium-ion batteries represented by solid-state batteries, "but the industrialization of all-solid-state battery technology has not affected the market. It is estimated that it will take about 10 years for the pattern to have an important impact. The scale of my country's R&D team in the battery field is far ahead in the world, and young talents are coming out in large numbers.
The increase in installed capacity leads to the realization of sustainable development of the whole industry chain
At present, with the increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries has also exploded. From January to September 2021, a total of 92GWh of power lithium-ion batteries are installed in the Chinese market, and it is expected to reach 150GWh throughout the year. Ouyang Minggao said that it is expected that by 2025, the power lithium-ion battery loading in the Chinese market will be around 600GWh, and in 2030, it will be 1500-2000GWh. Based on the number of new energy vehicles, it can be predicted that the total number of vehicle batteries in my country will exceed 2000GWh in 2025, 7000GWh in 2030, and 15000GWh in 2035.
Due to the hot electric vehicle market, upstream battery companies are also rapidly expanding production. Ouyang Minggao said that the current power lithium-ion battery industry has entered a period of short supply. According to statistics, the planned output of power lithium-ion batteries in my country will reach 1000GWh in 2023 and close to 2500GWh in 2025.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of production has stimulated the cyclical price increase of upstream materials in the battery industry, causing the entire industry to worry about the shortage of raw material resources. Regarding the reserves of lithium ore, cobalt ore, nickel ore, etc., the economic recoverable reserves of global lithium resources are 21 million tons, and the total exploration reserves are 86 million tons. Ouyang Minggao said, "The total exploration reserves have continued to increase in recent years, and the problem of raw materials does not seem to be large."
The industry's concerns are not unreasonable. The limited reserves of cobalt resources and the uneven distribution of global resources are the focus of the industry's concerns. Cobalt resources, the economically exploitable reserves are only 7.1 million tons, and the global resource distribution is extremely uneven. 2/3 of the cobalt mines are dependent on the Congo (Gold) in Africa; 3/4 of the lithium mines are distributed in Australia, Chile, Argentina, etc. Country; half of nickel mines depend on Indonesia and Russia.
It is worth noting that the battery "carbon footprint" is also very worthy of attention. According to Ouyang Minggao, different types of batteries have different life cycle carbon emissions. Taking the ternary high-nickel 811 lithium-ion battery as an example, the carbon emission per kilowatt-hour of the whole life cycle is about 87 kilograms. The relatively high carbon emission of ternary batteries is mainly due to the positive electrode material. Carbon emissions from the preparation of precursors and cathode materials account for half of the total emissions of ternary batteries. Compared with the ternary NCM811 battery, the carbon emission in the whole life cycle of the lithium iron phosphate battery is about one third less.
In order to solve the problem of battery carbon emissions, many domestic battery companies are currently shifting their production to the west, such as Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Qinghai and other places, making full use of the "green electricity" resources in the western region. For example, the battery production plan in Sichuan Province has reached 500GWh, of which Yibin has 160GWh.
The battery technology route has entered the era of diversified development
Although the current power lithium-ion battery is in the mainstream, it also has places that cannot be covered. Electric vehicles equipped with power lithium-ion batteries are unevenly distributed in China, and most of them are concentrated in the south, central and eastern regions of the Great Wall. The areas north of the Great Wall, west and northwest are not much distributed.
In this regard, hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries, which have gradually entered the public eye in recent years, exist in the new energy vehicle market together with power lithium-ion batteries due to their abundant raw material storage, low-carbon cleanliness, and large-scale commercial production. If the two can form a complementary form, it will greatly enhance the layout of new energy vehicles in the automotive industry, and can better and faster achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions.
Ouyang Minggao said that the breakthrough in hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery technology is almost ten years later than that of power lithium-ion batteries. At present, the cost of hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries is in a period of rapid decline and will usher in an explosion. The hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery has entered the stage of large-scale commercial demonstration, and five ministries including the Ministry of Finance have launched the national hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery vehicle application demonstration project. For example, Beijing is recently implementing a demonstration project of fuel-powered lithium battery vehicles "Hydrogen Mobility for the Winter Olympics".
Ouyang Minggao also pointed out that the layout of hydrogen energy electric vehicles should also take into account: adhere to the goal of clean and low-carbon, and achieve new breakthroughs in hydrogen energy technology through technological innovation. Take the market as the lead, deploy hydrogen energy according to local conditions, and overcome the current difficulties and shortcomings of hydrogen energy.
It should be noted that the current power lithium-ion battery market has entered an explosive period, and its dominant position will be difficult to shake in a short period of time. Hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries will also take the opportunity to develop, but its volume and scale, and even technology and talent reserves, They are unable to compete with the main body of lithium-ion batteries, so that my country's power lithium-ion battery market has formed a market structure dominated by lithium-ion batteries and supplemented by hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries, showing a diversified development trend of blooming flowers.
