The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
On the one hand, the lithium battery giant CATL passed the IPO meeting in 24 days, setting a new record for IPO meeting; on the other hand, Jianruiwo Neng once again issued a shareholder reduction announcement, and at the same time predicted a loss of more than 300 million yuan in the first quarter of this year. You must know that Jianrui Wo Neng ranked third in domestic power battery installed capacity in 2017, second only to CATL and BYD, and made a profit of 254 million in the first quarter of last year. When the technical route was adjusted and the domestic new energy policy subsidy policy was gradually withdrawn, the reshuffle of power battery companies intensified. Last year, not only did CATL and BYD exchange seats, but the performance of many small and medium-sized enterprises also declined.
Battery companies are attacked by both sides
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100% equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51% year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24%-91.75% in the first quarter of this year.
The power battery is the core component of the new energy vehicle, and the cost accounts for 30%-50% of the whole vehicle. The subsidy declines, and the power battery enterprise must also bear the corresponding price reduction pressure. On the one hand, customers are putting pressure on battery price reductions, and on the other hand, upstream suppliers are wildly raising prices. The situation of battery companies can be imagined. Even in CATL, where ternary lithium batteries accounted for nearly half of its sales in 2017, the gross profit margins of its main product power battery systems from 2015 to 2017 were 41.40%, 44.84%, and 35.25%, respectively, which dropped significantly in 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40%, which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7%. This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Power battery head plate replacement
According to the data, the top five global power battery sales in 2017 were CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma and LG Chem, with sales of 11.84GWh, 10GWh, 7.2GWh, 5.5GWh and 4.5GWh respectively. Overseas, Panasonic is the leader in power batteries in Japan, and LG and Samsung are the two power batteries in South Korea. With their huge size, they take advantage of their scale and are in a leading position in battery technology and automation.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73%, surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30% of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
In 2016, BYD ranked first in China and second in the world for power batteries. With the sudden emergence of the Ningde era, its performance declined in 2017.
However, due to the rapid increase in power battery production capacity and the decline of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the price of the power battery system in CATL has been greatly reduced, from 2.28 yuan/Wh in 2015 to 1.41 yuan/Wh in 2017, a cumulative decrease up to 38.26%. The net profit after deduction of non-deductibles in CATL also fell from 2.96 billion yuan in 2016 to 2.47 billion yuan in 2017.
At present, the mainstream technical route of new energy passenger car batteries is ternary batteries (ternary batteries are also the main technical route of CATL), that is, lithium batteries with nickel-cobalt lithium manganate or nickel-cobalt lithium aluminate as cathode materials, and cobalt as the cathode material. Stabilizers are indispensable. Ternary lithium has high energy density and can provide longer battery life. By 2017, the price of ternary lithium batteries has dropped to a minimum of 1.4-1.5 yuan/Wh, which is basically the same as lithium iron phosphate. The rise of ternary batteries is an important reason for the Ningde era to overtake BYD.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium-sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73%.
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16%, while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Serious overcapacity of power battery
The data shows that in 2017, the installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries in my country was 36.27Gwh, an increase of about 20% year-on-year, which was far from the 50-60GWh estimated by the industry at the beginning of 2017; and the technical route of lithium batteries has undergone great changes. The market share of power batteries exceeds 44%, which has doubled from 2016. This is also something that Jian Ruiwu can not expect.
On the other hand, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in my country last year was close to 800,000 units, an increase of 50% compared with 2016; the output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 478,000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 200,000 units. Obviously, the growth rate of power battery installed capacity cannot keep up with the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales, because the production and sales structure of new energy vehicles has changed, and the proportion of passenger cars and special vehicles has increased rapidly. Under the downward trend of the new energy passenger vehicle market, the new energy passenger vehicles that continue to make great progress have become the core of the growth of power battery performance.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54%; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92% and 92.37%, respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92%. It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20%. This may be the company's response.
In China, BYD is the most threatening competitor in the CATL era. This former battery overlord was overtaken by CATL in terms of shipments last year. In order to regain the battery leading position, BYD made two important adjustments: one is to adjust the battery technology route. Since 2017, BYD has started to use ternary lithium batteries in its passenger car business, and pure electric models produced in 2018 and later will also use ternary lithium batteries. However, battery companies such as CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have also begun to expand the production capacity of ternary batteries. The second is to spin off the power battery business and operate it independently to supply other new energy vehicle companies.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30% of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
