The new supply and demand pattern of the LED industry
The traces we have seen are: (1) In 2016, the upstream price of the LED industry chain increased repeatedly, and some products rose by more than 15%; (2) In 2016, the revenue of low-end LED lighting companies ushered in an inflection point, and many companies increased by more than 40% year-on-year. %. The apparent factor is that the price of raw materials is increased and the downstream transmission is carried out. In fact, the supply and demand relationship of the LED industry chain has changed.
The LED industry chain needs the end: the penetration space of LED lighting is still large, and the small distance ushered in a burst in 16 years
Need-side analysis 1: The penetration rate of LED lighting is only 27.2%, and the "white ban" from October 1st will promote the further acceleration of LED lighting to replace incandescent lamps, and it is estimated that 60% of the 15-year LED bulb production capacity will be consumed. It is estimated that by 2020 The annual compound growth rate of global LED lighting reached 20.36%.
Need-side analysis 2: The small-distance LED market inside and outside the household continues to be hot. More than 140 billion LEDs will be needed in 2016, and there will still be an annual increase of nearly 40 billion in 2017-18. At that time, the small-distance LED production capacity was 70 billion. Around the world, the gap between supply and demand is infinite. In conclusion, it can be seen that the demand has been significantly improved.
LED industry chain: The expansion of upstream chip production capacity in 2016 is limited, and the concentration of packaging industry has increased significantly
Supply-side analysis 1: The "13th Five-Year Plan" no longer includes the LED industry as a cultivation industry, and the subsidies for LED chip companies are gradually narrowing. The overall upstream chip production capacity has been significantly suppressed in nature. Aixtron and Veeco, the manufacturers that account for 90% of MOVCD supply, have only ordered more than 30 MOVCDs in 2016, which reflects that upstream capacity expansion will slow down significantly.
Supply-side analysis 2: After 15 years of deep reshuffle, nearly 4,000 LED-related companies will withdraw from the market, during which low-end and backward packaging production capacity has been fully eliminated, industry concentration has been significantly improved, and leading packaging companies with excellent cost control capabilities will benefit Negotiations can only increase significantly due to the improvement of the planning effect.
The LED supply and demand pattern is tight, or will continue into 2018. After 15 years of deep reshuffle of the LED industry, the overall supply format of the LED industry has been fully adjusted, the entry threshold of the industry has been raised, and new supply will be greatly reduced. Change and shorten the LED upstream subsidy, the disordered production capacity will be obviously suppressed in the future. At the same time, the demand for LED lighting and small distances will be good for a long time. Therefore, in the next 2 to 3 years, it will continue to greatly drive the downstream demand of the LED industry chain.
