Driven by the market, the demand for power lithium batteries will soar
From 2013 to 2016, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 19.7, 26.5, 43.0, and 738,000, respectively, and the penetration rate had reached 0.8%, completing the penetration from 0 to 1%, and is currently at a rapid rate of 1%-10%. growth period. Auto companies at home and abroad have released new energy vehicle strategies, increased investment in the construction of electric platforms and research and development of new electric models. At present, my country's A00/A0-class new energy passenger car production accounts for more than 60%, and it is the main body of heavy volume. In the case of subsidy decline, in order to move closer to the high subsidy standard, it is bound to upgrade the model structure and gradually upgrade to A-class. The battery capacity of the bicycle is expected to increase. Under the two-way pull, the demand for power batteries will soar.
The demand for power batteries will usher in a rapid growth in the future market demand under the dual-wheel drive of downstream new energy vehicles and increased bicycle power. (1) Global market: We estimate that the demand for power batteries in 2018, 2020, and 2025 will be 88GWh, 205GWh, and 583GWh, respectively, of which the CAGR from 2018 to 2020 is about 33%. It is expected that the market size will exceed 120 billion in 2018 and grow to 215.3 billion in 2020, with a three-year CAGR of about 21%. (2) Domestic market: We estimate that the demand for power batteries in 2018, 2020 and 2025 will be 47GWh, 97GWh and 270GWh respectively, of which the CAGR from 2018 to 2020 is about 27%. It is estimated that the Chinese market size will exceed 66 billion in 2018, and will grow to 101.9 billion in 2020.
With the improvement of vehicle endurance requirements, the demand for ternary batteries with high energy density has increased significantly. It is estimated that the number of new energy vehicles equipped with ternary batteries is expected to reach 1.8 million in 2020, accounting for more than 90% of the total number of new energy vehicles. We estimate that in 2018, the domestic new energy vehicle demand for ternary batteries is expected to exceed 28GWh, corresponding to a market size of over 39 billion. By 2020, the demand for ternary power batteries will increase to 76GWh, corresponding to a market size of over 80 billion. The CAGR of the demand in 2018-2020 is about 39%, and the CAGR of the market size in 2018-2020 is about 27%.
At present, due to cost, technology, policy and other reasons, the energy storage battery market is still in the introduction stage. In 2017, the global energy storage lithium battery shipment was 10.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 38%. Among them, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments were 3.45GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34%, a rapid growth. Benefiting from the upgrading of communications and energy Internet applications, the market size will be on the rise. It is estimated that the output value of energy storage is expected to reach 13.7 billion yuan by 2022, a 2.5-fold increase over 2017. With the gradual maturity of technology and the gradual decline in cost, the energy storage market is also expected to become another growth point driving the consumption of lithium batteries.
