Lithium carbonate spot supply is getting tighter, lithium-ion battery index rose 82.75% during the year
Recently, Guotai Junan’s announcement about the third price increase of lithium resources has caused a heated discussion in the market. It believes that the third lithium price increase has been brewed and started, and the price of lithium carbonate is the first to lead the rise. The supply and demand of lithium continue to be tight in a short time. Prices may remain strong.
According to Guotai Junan’s analysis, the first time the price of lithium resources increased was from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. The second price increase was from the end of June this year, when the price of lithium was 90,000 yuan / ton, and by the end of September, the price of lithium was close to the historical high of 180,000 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 195,000-200,000 yuan per ton, and stocking up a year ago will become the core catalyst for the third rise.
A reporter from "Securities Daily" combed the Flush Lithium-ion Battery Index (885710) and found that during the first price increase of lithium resources, the index fluctuated less and remained at around 900 points, but it began to rise rapidly in May 2021, and once surged As high as 1700 points, during the second price increase, the index rose by 50%, and fell back to around 1500 points in late September. After entering November, the index started a new wave of gains. As of November 24, the index reached 1679 points, an increase of 82.75% during the year.
Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Division, told the Securities Daily reporter that the increasingly obvious contradiction between supply and demand has prompted the price increase of lithium resources. At present, the reasons for the current market price increase are in addition to the continuous increase in the price of mines, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still the highlight of the price increase. one. Affected by the shutdown of a few smelting terminals, the spot supply of lithium carbonate has become more and more tight, and there are fewer export resources. In addition, the downstream sentiment is high, and the trend of lithium carbonate market is relatively clear.
Qu Yinfei said: "The rising price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased downstream cost pressure, so downstream companies also intend to increase prices, but there is a lag in price transmission. During the price increase, downstream companies' profits will be due to the high price of raw materials. my country’s dependence on imported lithium mines is extremely high, and the rising price of lithium mine resources is one of the future trends. Therefore, some industrial chain companies are actively deploying overseas lithium mines, which can effectively control the cost of raw materials and lay the foundation for subsequent company expansion. ."
There are few domestic lithium ore resources, but lithium salt resources are very rich. Therefore, under the expectation of lithium resource price hikes, the capital market pays attention to the mergers and acquisitions of overseas lithium ore resources by domestic companies, which makes Ningde Times, Tianqi Lithium and others actively Listed companies that deploy overseas lithium ore resources have been recognized by the market and sought after by funds. On the other hand, focusing on the concept of lithium extraction from salt lakes, listed companies with related salt field resources and technologies have also become the focus of the recent market.
Zhang Cuixia, chief investment consultant of Jufeng Investment, pointed out to the reporter of Securities Daily that benefiting from the continuous boom in downstream new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and other industries, the lithium resources sector has become one of the hottest tracks this year, and under the global wave of new energy , the price of lithium resources is also rising, showing an intensifying trend. This kind of price increase makes the upstream of the industry chain the biggest beneficiary, but we must be alert to the impact on the downstream industry, because there is no industry alliance to coordinate the balance of supply and demand, and the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials will affect the revenue and net profit of the downstream industry. It even leads to a further increase in the contradiction between upstream and downstream supply and demand.
Zhang Cuixia added: "In order to cope with the increase in resource prices, domestic lithium-ion battery industry chain companies have launched overseas lithium mine acquisitions, which has also become a hot spot for capital to pursue. However, with the current high lithium resources, the acquisition price is also rising. It may bring obvious financial pressure to listed companies, and some unpredictable risks may occur in lithium ore reserves and mining costs. At present, the lithium-ion battery sector has risen too high, and some listed companies have already had high valuations. The value premium, even if there is still room for price increases in lithium resources in the future, the risks of related listed companies are also accumulating, and the room and motivation for the increase is not high.”
