The LED industry has begun to appear warm
After losing money on a large scale, China's LED industry has finally ushered in signs of recovery. "Now, the price of unpackaged chips with certain quality has increased by about 10%." The price of commodities in downstream applications has also increased by about 5%.
This time the price increase of LED packaging factories only touches packaging. Although it has nothing to do with lighting packaging, the downstream of the LED industry chain is also brewing price increases. After a year or two of low prices in the market, the rebound trend of LED quotations has become obvious. Compared with the previously sluggish market quotations, the LED quotations have risen by nearly 10% as a whole. However, the price increases were not all price increases at that time.
"After experiencing the industry trough in 2015, this round of price increases is the beginning of a return to a reasonable range for the quotation of professional commodities, but it remains to be seen whether the industry will recover after that." In the future, the demand side of LED commodities will still be There is huge room for development. After this adjustment, the industry will return to rationality.
The starting point of the price increase
Previous LED companies experienced a long downturn.
Since 2010, China's LED industry has entered a period of rapid development. "At that time, the market entry threshold was very low." A person in charge of an LED company recalled that it was usually possible to enter the industry with an investment of several hundred thousand yuan. At that time, China's LED industry was just starting, attracting a lot of capital and industry. Planning is increasing rapidly. At that time, the plans of domestic companies were not too big. With the help of capital, a new entrant company may catch up with the top domestic industry companies in about half a year.
In the early stage of industrial development, the industry has the disadvantages of low product quality, serious homogeneity and low technical content of products, and the method of competition between companies is usually the most common low-price competition. In this situation , the domestic LED commodity prices began to drop significantly.
"In 2013, the price of products in the LED industry dropped by about 30%, and in 2012, it continued to drop by about 20%, and in 2015, it continued to drop by about 5%." In the past three years, the decline in the LED industry has been shrinking, but in 2015 The annual quotation basically reached the cost line of various companies, and many companies have been operating below the cost line for a long time, including many large LED manufacturers who have carried out low-price promotions. Under this situation, the LED industry has entered the bottom of the industry.
Judging from the data performance of listed companies, in 2015, Sanan Optoelectronics, the largest LED company in China, achieved sales revenue of 4.858 billion yuan, operating profit of 1.505 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.695 billion yuan. The growth rate slowed down.
The number of LED chip products produced by Huacan Optoelectronics, which ranked second in China, increased by 65.52% over the same period of the previous year, and increased by 71.63% over the same period last year. The company completed a net profit of -95.9639 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 205.56%, and its gross profit margin was only 16.75%.
"Under this unreasonable low price competition, the commodity value and company value of the LED industry are despised as a whole." The above-mentioned professionals indicated that the callback of this quotation is a reasonable callback, and the overall gross profit margin of the industry needs It can only match the return on investment of LED companies and the current market value if it rises back to about 30%.
The price increase at that time is a kind of card position in time.
Since 2012, the state has issued the "China's Roadmap for Gradually Screening Incandescent Lamps". From October 1 of that year, China banned the import and sale of incandescent lamps of 60 watts and above for general lighting; by October 1, 2016, China will all Discontinued, banned incandescent lamps.
"That is to say, starting from October 1 this year, the production and sales of Baizhi Lamp will be banned nationwide." The previous industry has been operating at a low point. At this moment, the company's price increase will be attributed to one A very normal business rhythm.
An increase of about 10% is understood in the professional world as a return to a reasonable level. The above-mentioned professionals also indicated that the demand for LED products in the market at that time was still increasing, and from the perspective of the investment return of the LED industry, the current quotation still does not match the company's investment, which is a reasonable increase. .
"It's still a tentative price hike." Now, the industry's capacity utilization has risen back above 90 percent. The current price increase is mainly caused by the price increase of large-scale manufacturers in the industry, but the fluctuation of the price increase is not large, and it is relatively conservative, and the current price increase only allows manufacturers to slightly rise to the cost line, which is still in demand from the real recovery of the industry. time.
Specifically, although the LED industry has experienced the industry trough in 2015, the concentration of the industry in the entire industrial layout is not high enough. Previously, many companies relied on relevant subsidies from the state to reduce losses. Now the time for the withdrawal of subsidies is not long, and some companies are still within the scope of temporary support. The speed of production capacity reduction in shopping malls is not very fast. The increase may also bring about a re-increase in this capacity.
Advance capacity expansion
In fact, although China's LED industry has experienced a round of "rough growth" of overcapacity, the demand for white woven lamps has been increasing in the market.
Professionals pointed out that the replacement rate of China's lighting industry has risen to about 30%, and in the next few years, the replacement rate will reach about 70%-80%, according to this calculation. , the domestic demand for LED products will at least double. In addition, at present, the market share of mainland China in the global LED market has increased from about 10% to about 30%. The demand is still increasing rapidly.
It is precisely because of optimistic about the development trend of this industry that domestic companies have been accelerating the expansion of production capacity. Taking Huacan Optoelectronics as an example, at the beginning of its listing in 2012, Huacan Optoelectronics invested 3.5 billion yuan to expand production capacity in Zhangjiagang. In 2015, the company re-established Yiwu production base.
Unlike in the past, the current industry order has changed a lot. In 2014, there were about 20,000 LED companies in China, but by 2015, about 4,000 companies had withdrawn from the market, and the number of companies in the industry dropped by 20%.
"Companies in the industry after the shuffle are more rational." Professionals also indicated that the company's requirements for skills are relatively high, and the investment threshold has also increased. Now, through the shuffle, a number of large-scale plans have emerged in the industry. of companies that formed the beginning of an industry gathering. That is to say, new entrants need more and more huge capital to have the opportunity to catch up with existing companies. "To catch up with a company's plan now, it takes at least 3-4 years, and the investment cost is more than before. several times".
Relevant people said that the problems such as overcapacity and low-end commodities in China's LED industry have improved, but they have not been completely eliminated. Although there are signs of recovery in the industry, LED companies should still adhere to rationality, organize production plans according to market needs, and pay attention to technology research and development.
