Who can win the "Battle for Hegemony" of power lithium batteries?
Since the beginning of this year, it has become the consensus of the new car industry that those who have obtained batteries have won the world. As one of the core components of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries are becoming a high ground in the new energy industry chain.
At present, the global battery suppliers are concentrated in three countries: China, Japan and South Korea. my country's Ningde era, South Korea's LG, Samsung SDI, SK and Japan's Panasonic occupy a dominant position.
Electric market competition
For new energy vehicles, the battery is the heart. Today, vigorously developing the new energy vehicle industry has become a global consensus. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, Japan and South Korea reflects the battery consumption market pattern in China, Japan and South Korea to a certain extent.
According to data, in 2015, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country was 0.7%, that in South Korea was 0.2%, and that in Japan was 0.5%. 0.9%, ranking last.
The latest data from the China Automobile Association shows that in October, the penetration rate of my country's new energy vehicle market continued to maintain a historical high of 16.4%, and the penetration rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market reached 18.2%, gradually turning to market-driven.
On November 17, Zheng Yun, senior partner of Roland Berger and vice president of Greater China, said at the 2021 my country Automotive Innovation Summit that with the current market development speed, my country will reach the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2024. The target of 20% should be able to reach 45%-50% in 2030 - exceeding the guidance level of previous industry plans.
According to the consumer survey of Roland Berger's "Disruptive Data Detection in the Automotive Industry", the acceptance of new energy vehicles by consumers around the world continues to increase. Zheng Yun introduced that in addition to the Chinese market, there are also a large number of second-tier and third-tier national markets where the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rising rapidly. Taking South Korea as an example, in January last year, consumers' willingness to purchase was about 55%. This year Climbed to 70%.
Electric vehicles in Japan started early, but their development momentum is relatively flat, and has been severely suppressed by hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). However, the high cost of Japanese lithium-ion battery companies is an important reason for the decline in the competitiveness and market share of Japanese companies, but the market channels are obviously much higher than those of Chinese companies.
Like Japan, South Korea is a big country in the auto industry. At present, although Hyundai and Toyota have their own pure electric vehicle platforms, pure electric vehicles are not the biggest sellers in their respective countries. The penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in my country has also increased rapidly in the past two years, but because the market in my country is really too large, the promotion speed is not particularly fast.
The frontier of technology
Power lithium-ion battery is a technology-driven industry, and the speed of technological update and iteration is very fast, and R&D strength is the source of core competitiveness.
In my country, in terms of structural innovation of power lithium-ion batteries, BYD invented the blade battery, and the Ningde era has CTP technology. The degree of advancement of these technologies will determine the cost of power lithium-ion batteries, thereby affecting the process of parity between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Now CATL is studying CTP's next-generation technology CTC, trying to integrate power lithium-ion battery cells, related components and chassis.
Globally, in addition to my country's Ningde era, the heavyweight "players" in the field of power lithium-ion batteries include South Korea's LG New Energy and Japan's Panasonic. Japan still has obvious advantages over my country and South Korea in core technology. In addition, Japan's lithium-ion batteries are also similar to South Korea's, and they are basically subsidiaries of Japanese electronics giants.
LG New Energy's power lithium-ion batteries are mainly soft packs, and Panasonic's are mainly cylindrical, and the early days are bound to Tesla. According to SNEResearch data, the world's top ten power lithium-ion battery companies account for more than 90% of the market share. In the past, these modules were separated and had to be produced and assembled separately. If this technology can be mass-produced, integrated products will further reduce the cost of batteries, and the industrial chain pattern of car manufacturing may also be restructured.
Capital field battle
The rapid rise of the Ningde era, known as my country's "King of Ning", is not only due to its leading technology and clear strategic direction, but also an important reason is that it began to invest in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain very early. This makes its role in the industry not only a factory selling batteries, but also an important player in the automotive industry chain that cannot be avoided.
From battery-related manufacturing, to downstream OEMs, to automotive-related chips, chassis, autonomous driving, and laser technology, to upstream raw materials for batteries, to the most upstream lithium mine, CATL has a layout. The most important way is to invest.
In June of this year, South Korea’s LG New Energy, the biggest competitor of the CATL, started the listing process and planned to raise more than 10 trillion won (about 57.3 billion yuan) in IPO, which is expected to set the record for the largest IPO in South Korea.
In July, the South Korean government announced an ambitious plan to spend $35 billion by 2030 on developing the country's electric vehicle battery industry to compete with already dominant Chinese and Japanese firms. In line with this strategy, South Korean battery giants LG New Energy, SK Innovation, and Samsung SDI announced plans to invest a total of 40 trillion won (about 224.7 billion yuan) by 2030.
Japan has been cultivating for many years in terms of electric-based hybrid technology and hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery technology. Japan has also clearly put forward an electrification strategy - to achieve the popularization of electric vehicles by 2030, in fact, the market is still far from "real realization of the popularization of electric vehicles". If you want to achieve the goal, you have to "break the boat". However, the Japanese market is too small.
In short, the battery giants in various countries are competing to accelerate financing and expand production, and behind it is a comprehensive competition for the new energy industry.
